Here are just two links we looked at last week by way of conclusion. They both illustrate the complexity of the matter.
The first one is a New York Times article about the use of PowerPoint in the military. The piece is illustrated by a very obscure slide aimed at portraying the complexity of the Afghan war. General Mc Chrystal, ironically commenting on the absurdity of that slide, reportedly declared that “when we understand [it] we’ll have won the war” (see article).
The second one is a German website that I found pretty entertaining. The students seemed to have a different opinion, but they got caught in playing with it eventually. It maps the many plausible scenarios for the future Afghanistan. It’s definitely worth looking at.